Financial information and macroeconomic forecasts

Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters

In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radi...

Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts

Financial Openness and Macroeconomic Volatility

We analyze the implications of financial openness to macroeconomic volatility in a small open economy. The volatility of major macroeconomic aggregates shows non-monotonic pattern with respect to the degree of financial openness in the model without domestic financial frictions. The introduction of domestic financial frictions makes the volatility patterns flatter. Our model explains the lack o...

Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis

I ssues relating to fi nancial stability have always been part of the macroeconomics curriculum, but they have often been presented as mainly of historical interest, or primarily of relevance to emerging markets. However, the recent fi nancial crisis has made it plain that even in economies like the United States, signifi cant disruptions of fi nancial intermediation remain a possibility. Under...

Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Economists have devoted a great deal of attention to modeling the macroeconomic implications of cyclical variation of borrowers’ creditworthiness, yet the literature has largely neglected the task of modeling the behavior of the bank. This omission in the literature is particularly unfortunate given the strong empirical evidence in support of the role of banks’ financial structure in lending de...